单选题It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ______.A price of crude risesB commodity prices riseC consumption risesD oil taxes rise

Directions:In this section, there is one passage followed by 5 questions. Read the passage carefully, then answer the questions in a maximum of 10 words. Remember to write the answers on the Answer Sheet.　　Questions 1-5 are based on the following passage.　　Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?　　The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.　　Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.　　Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.　　One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.　　Questions:　　1．What is the main reason for the latest rise of oil price?　　2．What are the results of the 1970s’ oil shock?　　3．It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.　　4．According to the passage, reduction in oil consumption is due to ________, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries.　　5．According to the passage, compared with those in the 1970s, oil-price shocks are ________ now.

It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ______.

Passage 5　　In the eyes of Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria’s oil minister and the current president of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the price of oil is “ very low “. Compared with July, when it peaked at $ 78.40 a barrel, he is right. Since then, it has fallen by almost a quarter. On September 25th, it briefly slipped below $ 60 a barrel, its lowest level in six months. The same analysts who just a few short months ago were wondering about the effect of expensive oil on the world economy are now pondering the consequences of a slump.　　That might prove premature. For one thing, Mr. Daukoru insists that OPEC will do something to stem the slide. At its last meeting, in mid-September, the group threatened to cut its output without notice if the price fell further. Saudi Arabia, for one, has been selling less oil of late. Ministers from different OPEC countries have been making different noises about whether a cut is desirable or likely, but all would be loath to see their revenues eroded by lower prices.　　The world is still consuming almost as much oil as it can pump, so any reduction in supply could send prices skywards again. Both the relative calm of this year’s hurricane season and the diminishing threat of an interruption to Iran’s oil exports seem to have contributed to the recent fall. But should clouds gather over the Atlantic, or tempers rise in the Middle East, the price could jump again.　　Moreover, the price of oil usually falls in the autumn, after the summer surge in petrol consumption has abated but before winter brings higher demand for heating oil. According to Sabine Schels, a commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, seasonal swings in fuel prices are becoming more pronounced, thanks to a shortage of refining and storage capacity. At times of peak demand, she argues, the petrol price must rise high enough to prompt the reopening of old and inefficient refineries that would not normally be profitable. Those refineries, in turn, use up a lot more oil, pushing up its price too.　　Oil markets will not escape this cycle, Miss Schels believes, until more refineries and storage tanks are built, and more fields developed—a process that can take years. Traders in the futures market also seem to believe that the oil price will rise again. Oil for delivery- in December 2007, for example, cost $ 68 on September 27th. The price is more than $ 60 for all months until December 2011.　　Those bets could sour, however, if the American economy slows, as many suspect it is already doing. That would dent demand for oil, both from America itself and from countries that supply it with imports, such as China. Economists at HSBC, who expect a sharp American slowdown in 2007, now think Asian GDP growth will be 5.8% in 2007, against the consensus forecast of 6.3 %.　　On the other hand, cheaper oil might help to mitigate any slowdown, in several ways. It would boost firms hit by higher energy prices, such as the struggling manufacturers of gas-guzzling cars. And it will relieve the pressure on consumers, at a time when many are worried that a stalling housing market may weigh on their spending. Economists at Morgan Stanley estimate that the fall in petrol prices from over $ 3 to $ 2.50 a gallon (the average is now $ 2.42) will alone have added some $ 78 billion to American purchasing power. Consumer confidence numbers, released on September 26th, were unexpectedly strong.　　Above all, cheaper oil would ease concerns about inflation, and so reduce the need for central bankers to increase interest rates. American inflation slowed in August, thanks in part to smaller increases in the cost of energy and transport. That’s good news, except that it might simply prompt Americans to drive more.　　1. What does the author mean by “that might prove premature”? (Para. 2) Why does he say so?　　2. Paraphrase the sentence “those bets could sour, however, if the American economy slows” (Para. 6)　　3. Why cheaper oil might help to “mitigate any slowdown”?

We can draw a conclusion from the text that ______.